Insights: E-Reads and Articles on Decision Making

Insights

Improving the decision process
  It Takes Three to Make Good Estimates
Reading time: app. 20 min.
Summary: 3-point estimation assumes that there is uncertainty on costs, efforts and duration.

This uncertainty can not be handled by the traditional single estimation point.
The Secrets of Net Present Value Projection
Reading time: app. 40min.
Summary: Net Present Value forecasts are among the most common techniques of investment / project selection against constraints like budgets or other resources.
Is the AD Team Role Destructive?
Reading time: app.15min.
Summary: The role of the Advocatus Diaboli, the Devil's Advocate, is often seen as restraining and destructive. Looking at the risks of group decisions, it is probably one of the most important team roles.

The paradox world of bad decisions
Executive summary:
The role of the Advocatus Diaboli, the Devil's Advocate, is often seen as restraining and destructive. One should avoid having such a person in a team.

Looking at the risks of group decisions, it is probably one of the most important team roles.

Is the AD Team Role Destructive?

The Advocatus Diaboli in Business Environments

By Oliver F. Lehmann, PMP

Opinions

"Devil's Advocate: The definition of this role is a project team member that takes up the contrary view just for the sake of argument and not on the arguments merits (if any). This role is negative because it often frustrates and disrupts effective communication and discourages people from participating."

Taken from: Advanced Project Management Workbook, published in 2005 by Washington State Department of Transport

A very popular view on the Advocatus Diaboli, the Devil's Advocate: We don't want him. He frustrates team members, destroys discussions, and slows down progress. The Advocatus diaboli is regarded as a destructive team role in a list together with

- Agressor
unfriendly to the project and its objectives
- Blocker
interrupts communications
- Withdrawers
does not actively participate
- Recognition seeker
is more interested in personal benefit
- Topic jumper
interrupts effective communications
- Dominator
tries to gain control over the discussion

The influential British Business thinker and trainer Dr. Meredith Belbin, who did a lot of fundamental work on team roles, didn't even mention the role of the Devil's Advocate or describe a similar one. His model consists of roles called

- Plant
inventive, but often in a world of his or her own
- Resource investigator
wholehearted, outgoing, but also often too cheerful and without long-term discipline
- Coordinator
settled, in no doubt, but may be a control freak
- Shaper
energetic and forceful, sometimes offensive
- Monitor-Evaluator
thoughtful, considered, maybe not inspiring
- Teamworker
win-win oriented and tactful, sometimes not decisive
- Implementer
controlled, consistent and action-oriented, possibly slow and inflexible
- Completer-Finisher
meticulous and timely, may have difficulties to delegate
- Specialist
hard working, dedicated, may see only immediate tasks and focuses on technical solutions

See: www.belbin.com

So, the Devil's Advocate is commonly refused or ignored, but it would have been a good idea in many projects to have such a formal role.

The history

The role of the Advocatus Diaboli - or in a more official language: the Promotor fidei - was established in the Catholic church in 1587 by Pope Sixtus V. His function was in the processes of beatification and canonization to gather all evidence against the person's honoring. No important act in the process of beatification or canonization was valid unless performed in the formal presence of the Advocatus Diaboli.

The office of the Advocatus Diaboli was abolished by Pope John Paul II in 1983.

The need

The Abilene paradox and the Sunk cost dilemma are two examples how decision making can go wrong, especially group decisions.

There is a popular belief that group decisions may not be a problem if there is respect between the participants in the decision. It was Jerry Harvey's merit to prove that this respect may even be the reason for failure.

A modern version of the Devil's Advocate can definitively help organizations stepping into these pitfalls. In a modern project environment, some rules should apply, quite similar to those in old times:

- Formal presence during strategic decisions
Decisions made in the absence of the DA should not be seen as valid.
- Critical distance
Sometimes, decision makers see themselves as "positive thinking", "enthusiastic" and "flamboyant", but their behavior should rather be regarded as "irrational exuberant*, ignoring looming threats.
- Preparation to interrupt and ask
Long monologues and speeches during meetings tend to tire the audience and make it more likely that decisions will be accepted which under normal circumstances may have been rejected. Especially when they are continued into lunch time.
- Dedication to numbers
Not all good decisions can be made based on numbers and a quantifiable business case. But those decisions which should be made without such a basis need additional explanation and justification.
- Dedication to risk management
The Sunk cost dilemma shows how an organization can be driven into crisis through a lack of risk management during early planning.
- Dedication to quality management
Whatever decisions are made in business, they can influence processes and their outcomes. An Advocatus Diaboli should ensure that all information on these impacts is collected and regarded during decision making.
- Dedication to documentation
Scope creep - a discrepancy between documentations and project reality - can make it impossible to make well-founded decisions. The Devil's Advocate should insist in complete and accurate documentation, which reflects the latest status of the project.
- Appreciation for a system
Many decisions look good when one's horizon is narrow The own objectives seem attainable, as long as one doesn't think about others. The Advocatus Diaboli should insist on consistency on detail level as well as on the big picture.
- Appreciation for roles and responsibilities
Many decisions are made by the wrong people: By a micro-managing boss or a low-level manager exceeding who is not sufficiently authorized. Or simply by the wrong manager in the wrong project or business unit, or at a wrong time. The Advocatus Diaboli should insist that it is the right person or group who does the decision.
- Stakeholder orientation
Whoever is interested, involved or can wield influence, the Advocatus Diaboli should make sure that no stakeholder is unidentified or neglected.
- Black hat thinking
Thinking about thinking - the Advocatus Diaboli should scrutinize the entire decision making process and assess its appropriateness for the specific situation.

*: The term Irrational exuberance was actually coined in 1996 by Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board. Mr. Greenspan was only in rare moments an Advocatus Diaboli, but these were the moments when big investors re-validated their assets.

By the way: We firmly believe that every Devil's Advocate should have Insight Tree as a tool to support the individual in the course of its job.

Visionary Tools Daniel & Oliver Lehmann
Trollblumenstr. 39g, 80995 Munich
Bavaria, Germany
Mail contact: