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| Vision: |
| Decisions will be made
differently and much better, when their makers
understand and apply long proven methods and avoid
common traps. |
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This page contains:
- The Paradox of Committee Decisions
- The Sunk Cost Dilemma
- Project Selection - a Pitfall
- The Secrets of Net Present Value Projection
- It takes Three to make good Estimates
How Decision Making can go wrong
| Reading time: |
app. 15min. |
| Summary: |
Instead of improving decision making, too much respect
and regardfulness may lead to poor decisions when ruling is done by
a committee. |
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More... |
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| Reading time: |
app. 25min. |
| Summary: |
The Sunk Cost Dilemma describes a game theory
situation in a 1-player game, where the sum of a
sequence of good decisions is one big bad decision. |
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More... |
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| Reading time: |
app. 5min. |
| Summary: |
Ensuring that the right project portfolio is
selected and that work will be done in the right order,
with appropriate priorities and with objectives aligned
with the corporate objectives ensures that the best is
made from the resources available |
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Numeric Decision Support Methods
| Reading time: |
app. 40min. |
| Summary: |
Net Present Value forecasts are one of the most
common techniques of investment/project selection
against constraints like budgets or other resources.
The function in Occam's Tree to Edit Payoff (Advanced) and then to link to named
cells in Microsoft Excel allows complex optimizations along both simple and
complex Net Present Value
forecasts. It even supports project selection against a pre-defined budget.
A set of templates has been developed to support users using this function. |
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More... |
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| Reading time: |
app. 20 min. |
| Summary: |
3-point estimation assumes that there is uncertainty
on costs, efforts and duration.
This uncertainty can not be handled by the traditional
single estimation point. |
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Project Selection - a Pitfall